Still this reflection has been particularly challenging for me. It has
been so for a variety of reasons. First I took the view that if our
democracy is to mature, we have to cultivate what is “practiced
restraint” to allow a new government a honeymoon to implement their
promise so that share partisan bickering from day one, when what they
are trying to do is not even clearly articulated in a legislative
agenda, and the unfolding of certain policy initiatives, do not
frustrate governance.
Secondly, the states of things are so fragile that a responsible
statesman must be on guard, lest a statement not too well considered,
produce an outcome more damaging to our collective desire for peace and
progress.
Thirdly, this is a time of rapid change in the global arena making a
certain delicacy in how we position, see ourselves, and project into
that arena, critical for the legacy we bequeath to our children. It was
important to make haste slowly at times like this in terms of rush to
judgement in public comments.
All things considered, however, the grave nature of the current
condition is such that failure to alert the simple, the ordinary, and
the mighty and powerful about our country’s sad race towards anarchy may
be a betrayal of the mission of my generation, in the Franz Fanon
sense. Perhaps patriotic counsel can cause a reflection and review that
may yet save us all unwarranted agony.
In this review, which is by no means exhaustive, we consider security
of the governors and the sovereign wealth fund, we also reflect on
failing institutions from the Judiciary to the Central Bank, the
healthcare system, infrastructure in a rapidly urbanizing situation, the
deepening electric power crisis and labour tensions.
Then we shall speak on the issue of constitutional reform, fiscal
federalism and the competitiveness of the Nigerian economy as well as
challenges with agriculture, corruption and the cost of governing.
On Security
The first demand of modern man on the Leviathan is security. Escape
from the philosophical “state of nature” is pointless if the state
cannot provide security. Yet to read our newspapers is to read a
“manifesto” on insecurity. Kidnappings are now daily routine that
attract little coverage unless high profile targets like Mikel Obi’s
father and Dr. Kusamotu’s daughter are involved. Armed robbery reigns
in many parts and big target hits like banks are not rare anymore.
Then there is terror. I do not have the statistics of exodus from
Maiduguri but most admit that it is headed to “ghost town” status. The
suicide bombing of the UN Building in Abuja, finally brought to the
World, after the Police Force Headquarters bombings the phenomenon of
Nigeria’s journey to Pakistan, which has already paralyzed several
states in the North East of Nigeria.
To this alarming situation can be added saber rattling in the
traditional Niger Delta battleground, and Plateau State’s travel on the
road to Somalia.
Sadly, this has been tragedy foretold. The book by the American writer
Robert Kaplan, The Coming Anarchy, in which West Africa’s descent into wanton criminality, ethnic and religious conflict and the revenge of the
poor, pointed to Jos going this wayv15 years ago. But we did nothing, I
was recently in Jos to speak at the National Institute for Policy and
Strategic Studies in Kuru.
To encourage responsible Youth, I spent hours in Radio interviews, and
in meetings to motivate Youth to consider the dignity of the human
person cardinal, and human life sacrosanct. I was sad that a day after
my visit one of those youth listening to me died a torturous death in
these ethnic and religious orgies that have stripped beauty from once
serene Jos.
In the face of all this the reaction of government has been pathetic.
Every new event shows that intelligence, instead of improving, is caving
in. The desperate need to rethink the structure of the police force is
apparently ignored even as experience around the world suggest the
imperative of decentralization and review of command structure.
I have always favoured community policing and the need for state and
regional police force but the fact that no serious discussion seems to
be going on about this makes one wonder what the purpose of the Federal
Executive Council is. Evidence suggests that the FEC has become a tender
board rather than the national operating committee engaging on our key
challenges.
Failing Institutions
Central to my model for reviewing state performance for years are six
critical variables. Among them, the state of Institutions, the Value
System (Culture) and Leadership. The state of institutions is a
veritable barometer for the health of a nation. Weak institutions have
been the bane of progress in Nigeria for a long time. In the last 100
days they just got much worse.
Particularly traumatized and traumatizing for Nigeria are the
immobilizing punches to the midsection of the last frontier institution,
the Judiciary.
It is considered the hope of the Common Man, and the final bastion for
expectation that all will get a fair, if not perfect chance to actualize
in Civil Community.
The issues around the controversy over allegations by the lead judge of
the Court of Appeals, Justice Salami, and the handling of the matter by
the government left a sour taste about the possibilities of Justice in
Nigeria. This is the dominant reason why many investors skip over
Nigeria in spite of alluring market possibilities. As author of the
1998 book: Managing Uncertainty. I have evidence based reasons to be
frightened about a future in which the judiciary declines so badly in
the estimation of fair minded people.
Institutions are so central to progress that in dealing with them state
actors must be focused on the long term good of society rather than
small time transaction partisanship. Nigeria is hemmoraghly badly from
the many errors of judgment of Justice Kastina-Alu and the Presidency.
I recall that in my response when the story first broke I had suggested
that both Kastina-Alu and Salami resign graciously, not because they
were right or wrong but because the responsibility of high office which
they had attained, made saving the institution more important than
establishing who was right or wrong.
Just as troubling is the case of the Central Bank stumbling from one
set of questionable decisions to another. I have to confess that each
time I think of the actions of the CBN in the last two and half years
the metaphors that strike me are Adolph Hitler in Germany and Juan Peron
in Argentina. Both men enjoyed public acclaim in populist jingoism of
their style but the effort in the end was the near destruction of their
countries.
Argentina went from being more or less at par with the United States in
1939, as Allan Beattie lucidly shows in his surprising Economic history
of the World, False Economy, to West Africa level GDP by the 1990s,
thanks to Peron’s nationalism. Hitler brought utter devastation to the
Third Reich.
The description by someone of the CBN functioning like an Animal farm
of mental asylum run by raving lunatics, is an extreme parody of George
Orwell. What I am more saddened by is that we will wake up 10 years
from now and realize this CBN has done more damages to the Nigerian
economy than all the corrupt bank executives removed and left behind
through some of the most arbitrary choices I have ever encountered as a
student of the public policy process around the world, put together.
Even more ridiculous than the disruption of the financial system is the
Islamic Banking matter that could result in the breakup of Nigeria.
There is nothing peculiar about non-interest banking of even one of an
Islamic flavour. I had collaborated with Alhaji Umaru Mutallab and
others in trying to explain it, several years ago, including featuring
the subjects on Patito’s Gang. But this CBN, staying in character, to
score cheap points has made it polarizing.
What is troubling is not that CBN is the way it is, the matter is that
the administration has watched unconcerned as it is dealing death blows
to the economy. A sick and enfeebled Umaru Yar’Adua could stop the decimalization programme of CBN so why is autonomy an excuse to hand
cheques to people working at dismantling the economy.
The National Assembly is quick to claim the powers of appropriation, so
how much have they done to check tax payer’s monies being recklessly
disbursed in the name of banking reform. One illegality after the other
has gone on and the Attorney – General office has pursed shadows
elsewhere.
If government is serious it should invite independent international
analysts to review every decision of CBN from the stress test to
nationalization to establish if the protest travesty has not been
inflicted on investors and citizens. What seems sure is a decline of
the sector and the economy for whose sake SAP sought financial deepening
and the banking sector liberalization that was to be its processor.
Suddenly we are back to those times when people bribed to be appointed
bank executives by a public sector in which we have a “tragedy of the
commons” writ large.
In one year before better connected people replace the successful
bribers from one round of executive changes, the appointed would have
done maximum damage. I still clearly remember a few people who went
through that between 1990 and 1994. The CBN error unchecked will surely
add to the unemployment time bomb.
The Unemployment Time Bomb
We have a young population. Every year they reach working age in their
millions but an economy in which government action has stifled private
initiative and growth appropriate to our “demographic dividend” has been
unable to provide the required jobs.
In 100 days we have seen no bold initiative articulated or the
implementation of our effort at putting idle hands to work and stimulate
the private sector to hire many more. This is a time bomb receiving
platitudes rather than action.
Rapid job creation will have to come from creative initiatives in
agriculture, manufacturing recitation, and infrastructure development.
The Sovereign Wealth Fund and Governors’ Amnesia
In recent weeks governors have carried on an assault on a law so
recently passed to enable us save a little for the benefit of the next
generation. The excuse they offer for recovering from amnesia suffered
when the issue became law is the grand norm, the law.
This idea is not new. It was raised when the excess crude account was
first suggested and later implemented. I recall saying to Lagos State
Finance Commissioner, Wale Edun, who worried that I supported the
“illegality” of states funds being held back that I think we should
quickly change that grand law rather than fail to save.
My take is that the governors perceive a weekend presidency and are
deepening the politics of power erosion to take more resources to
consume now. This is inspite of a “lottery effect” that has been
evident with the states being less effective in serving the needs of the
people with more money that comes as wind fall, relative to the wealth
creating regional governments of the times of true federalism in the
1960s.
In some ways this anti-savings disposition of governors already seen as
reckless spenders by the people seems so impolitic. It leaves the
impression of a perverse generation of politicians that has raided the
barn stored up by their fathers, are various consuming what today has
brought by accidents that include little of their effort and a
reaching-in to devour the patrimony of their grand children.
I have for year’s advocated constitutional reform that would allow a
fiscal regime in which percentage of revenues going to the distributable
pool, the federation account, the next tranche of revenues from mineral
income going to stabilization fund and the balance to a future fund.
The last two revenue stores would be managed like mutual funds where the
bolding of each state is as per their constitutionally prescribed
share.
Citizenship behavior needs to be exercised in the direction of putting
pressure on the governors to back off the track they are traveling.
Forging Consensus
Leading Nigeria out of its current state of self double, when the
prospects of rapid economic growth and prosperity have never been more
self evident require visionary effort to forge elite consensus.
Phenomenal opportunity for that in the last 12 years has been squandered
by leaders too limited to see the value of playing statesman and
bringing all the valuable human assets of our country under one roof
especially in a time of crisis as we have today.
With so many embittered that their country is in the firm grip of those
who do not lead it well in the direction other nations are going and
experiencing progress. It is no surprise that Nigeria’s core is being
rocked, both violently and in terms of a sense of despair from its
intellectual elite who have moral authority, if not power.
If those who are perceived to know and are committed, stay outside
perceived to know and are committed, stay outside “pressing” in progress
will be hard. Mahathir Mohammed discovered this in Malaysia and worked
to get all into the house, pissing out.
•Professor Utomi is a Political Economist and Entrepreneur.
