Frank Ukonga lecture
36; Global security challenges; Russian /Ukraine crisis , terrorism, wars &
cold peace in Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Africa; as provocateurs of a third
world war- An Empirical perspective,
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| His Excellency Prince Frank Ukonga - Chairman SDP EDO STATE OF Nigeria |
The United States Intervention
in European affairs: This Day, the 23ed of April 2014, United states paratroopers
lands in Poland, arguable in connection with the Russian Ukrainian crisis.; a
reminiscence of the 2ed world war where Poland was the sacrificial lamb between
the Nazi third Reich of Adolf Hitler and the Soviet Bolsheviks’ leader His
Excellency Jeosef Dugasvili Stalin the generalissimo…History indeed repeats
itself…even in timing; Adolf Hitler moved towards the Polish terrain in the
springs but capitulated to the cold Russian winters in what became popularly
known as the “ Semnadset mugonovennii Vesnie “ [Russian]- “17 victorious
winters-“]English]
Polish puzzling policy thrust: take one step forward, two steps backward: it is pertinent to note that historical dialectics should have
impacted positively to influence the Polish foreign policy thrust towards
interests and safeguarding its
sovereignty but unfortunately to no
avail; as it is common knowledge that when the elephants fight the grass
suffers. Poland is inadvertently drawn into a reluctant comradeship of a flaw
war; Membership of the EEC and NATO notwithstanding. The rules of constructive
engagements favor Poland as a beautiful bride of neutrality. And the same goes for
all the countries of the Balkan and all countries of the near abroad of the
Russian and Ukraine Axis,,, Events of recent past that led to the collapse of
the Eastern European states attracted by promises of greatness by the west only
became a mirage till today as they became worst off on net aggregates of social
economic prosperity becoming instead the dumping ground of western decay.
The collapse of the
Eastern Bloc: Save for George Soros, the Russian Federation, and its BRICS the axis of China, India, Brazil and South Africa who were supportive of the countries of the
Eastern Europe not much of the promised anticipated assistances came from the west,
after the west induced the countries of eastern Europe to pack up their
structures and transform into a look-alike of the western, in the context of
social-economic , policy thrust and
ideological modeling…to the fact that today even the said Ukraine is indebted
to the Russian federation of over $ 50 Billion dollars in subsidy financing…..that the region has become heavily indebted and a
net exporters of capital to the western metropolis like Africa and several
developing countries…in this contest, the East has been underdeveloped by the
west… just as they underdeveloped Africa.QED…
Historical Hindsight
of Russian –Ukraine Relations: Poland, Ukraine, Russian Federation, Belarus
etc are all of Slavic Racial typology, the same people with a common language, common
destiny, common borders, and a heritage that has been living together for centuries as one family. This
historical hindsight of brotherhood of the Slavic’s should impact on the
peoples of the region as well as on anybody who would want to mediate in the
context of conflicts emanating from that region…this should translate to the
applications of constructive diplomatic engagement through dialogue as the appropriate stratagem of conflict resolutions among brothers with common
ancestry, heritage, and language any other form of strategy applied by any third
party different from mediating would remain suspect.
Territorial,
predatory. and stabilizing the integrity of
Regional Powers./ superpowers: Focus on
US/ Panama Crisis as a similar of Russian / Ukraine Crisis over Crimea: A a few decades ago the United States overrun the sovereign state of Panama,
captured the president of a sovereign state and jailed him in America on drug
related charges and it was accepted as normal; unknown to many un esoteric mind
the true reason was that the behavior of Noriega the then president of Panama
became unpredictable and could become a threat to the Panama canal the only
Pacific access to the US to the sea. If the Panama canal becomes closed or the US refused access to use it the entire economy of the United States and the entire region would almost collapse. So it became immanent to kick out any leader
of Panama who becomes uncooperative and unpredictable to US interests.. the world did not go to war over it… the Russian federation / Ukrainian crisis and
the annexation of the Crimea by Russian federation is of similar streams of
fear of being denied access to the sea through the Crimea outlet by the new
acting leaders of Ukraine, after the Russian friendly Ukrainian President was
kicked out; the Crimea is the only remaining outlet in the northwest of
Russian Federation after the collapse of the Soviet Union..and it is of vital
economic, defense and strategic interest to both countries of Russia and
Ukraine…so anybody that wants to participate in the conflict resolution is to
call both parties to reach an agreement on how to jointly harness the region to
the benefits of the Crimea peoples and to both countries…the conflict is not obtuse
enough to cause war of the regional and continental magnitude that would bring
NATO/U.S.A and the Russian Military Axis to confrontation if all things being
equal.Except if it had other motives.
Solution to Ukraine
Russian crisis over Crimea: The solution is that the UN Scribe Ban KI Moon
should invite both the Russian Federation and the Ukrainian leaders to Geneva
to resolve the issues and reach an agreement…it is similar to the Nigerian /
Cameroon dispute over Bakassi peninsula which is great access to the Bight of
Biafra and its colossal strategic and economic potential…it was resolved by the
UN after decades of the cold war between Nigeria and Cameroon.
Causes of the Russian
/ Ukrainian Crisis:
EEC/ NATO
Expansionist policy thrust vs Russian Refusal of Direct integration of it Block
and zone of influence into the EEC:
The Russian Federation is a superpower in military strength
and working hard to marching that supper power status economically presently,
so all it needs is some few years of hard work to get its act together and be
back to halcyon days when it used to bestride the world as the center of power,
culture economy and industry of a global standard…
Secondly, the Russian Federation is a great Euro- Asian power
with landmass covering both Europe and the bulk of the Asian continent and
Russia wants to maintain this great status as a causal nexus between the two
most prosperous continents of Europe and Asian Tigers… so it would be strategically
wrong for its direct integration into the EEC and the European dream as it owes the responsibility
to its Asian aspects..So logically the best strategy for Russian federation and
its zone of influence is to refuse as well as repulse integration into the EEC
as direct member states but could cooperate with the EEC.
The Primary zone of influence of Russia is it's near abroad
which is made up of countries of the former soviet union of 15 countries which
if well managed could form a wealthy economic community of the CIS…Commonwealth of Independent States just like the EEC. And that was the reason why
the CIS was created with headquarters in Kiev the capital of Ukraine… and the
entire world was looking forward to the evolution of another wealthy economic
community that would benefit and add greatness to the glories of the human
family as another great variation and opportunity. Which is indeed lofty and
desirable to all men and women of goodwill the world over…And they-CIS- could achieve that dream if left alone…
The EEC/ NATO
Expansionist policy: No sooner than Gabachev the Soviet leader brought down
the Berlin Walls on his own volition and at the auspices of the Soviet Union with is theories of perestroika based on glasnost and Hosraschot + Doganertsers[frogjump
into the future]…nobody forced him to do it….he did it because he wanted to end
the cold war and to put an end to hate and animosity among mankind of the same continent…He did it for
humanity but then at the peril of his own Nation and at the peril of his own
power axis the Warsaw Pact…soon it became immanent for other Republics of the Soviet Union to ask for independence which they finally got through Boris Yeltsin…
The East opened up for capitalism to tread and gradually the
countries of Eastern Europe were attracted to the EEC membership until
when it got to the Russian borders of Ukraine…
EEC VS CIS: Ukraine
joined but not the customs Union as Ukraine was in the customs union of CIS and
also anchors the CIS in Kiev.. and soon early this year 2014 Ukraine was
offered the membership of the customs union of the EEC as a reactionary
backlash of the G-20 Summit in St Petersburg…and it was rejected by the
Russian friendly president of Ukraine, so he was kicked out by the parliament and
an acting president was set to accept joining the customs union with the EEC…
Being a member of the CIS means a lot to the CIS Economic
community as you would have access to virtually everything in the community for
same prices as the others are buying and privileges in defense, customs,
immigration, economic joint harnessing, in fact, you are everywhere in the 15 republics
once you are a member irrespective of your country of location…Iran, Mongolia
and a number of rich countries of the World have been admitted in CIS
The full problem: If Ukraine joins the customs and Tariff union of
another Economic community it would immediately destabilize the entire economic Community of 15 + countries of the CIS that are neither members of the EEC nor
the customs union of the EEC…Its a simple mathematics of set theory of subset…
in fact mathematically, economically, morally, it would crush the entire CIS
dream…and the CIS would become only a dumping ground for all western goods and
services as they would push into the CIS through the Ukrainian door….and would
herald only two options for the other members of the CIS..either join the EEC
or your economy would collapse and even begin to evince symptoms of failed State as it is the union of the unequal economic community the one at the lower ebb
would continue to be at mercy of the higher and be a net exporter of capital
and would gradually be drained by the higher this is the simple laws of Albert Einstein
of the relativity of potential differences..Similar to osmotic suctions.
As a leader of the CIS, the Russian Federation had only two
choice, ether to get crushed by the brother’s resolve to join another family or
to decouple his brother Ukraine from its own system and the third alternative
is for Ukraine to drop the EEC customs union membership for the survival and the greatness of the other 15 other countries of the CIS…
Euro Asian Economic community-
Apart from the CIS, there is another larger economic community of Euro Asian Economic Community which binds the CIS to its
other countries of Asia and it is being taunted to become a very wealthy
community as most or even all the Asian Tigers are members..all these would be
affected in a mutantis mutandis manner if Ukraine joins the EEC customs
Union…It seems Ukrainian are only in a hurry to push ahead unilaterally of the
others otherwise the CIS and the Euro ASIAN Economic Community id well nurtured
has the potential to overtake the EEC as one of the wealthiest economic Community in the entire universe that would benefit not only themselves but the entire world in not too distant future…all they need is commitments, and
working harder..focused,, with trust m unity and respect for other member nations…
East European
Economic community: this is a very strong concept that was created by the
Ukrainian led addressed to bring all countries of Eastern Europe most of
which belong to the Soviet Union now Russian federation zone of influence and
it is currently functioning with a view to integrating into a full economic
community…so the entire idea of the entire Eastern bloc and the Russian federation
and the Euro Asian community including Iran, Iraq and all of the Asian minor and
Asian proper…up to Japan…as well as the BRICS Union was the make Ukraine Kiev
the unquestionable headquarters of all these various unions and becoming the
economic, industrial and banking hob for the entire eastern Europe Asia and
the far east… Asia and catering for all the former Soviet bloc of above half
the population of the entire world…like the Brussels of Eastern Europe.. The
Role destiny and creation has entrusted unto the Nation of Ukraine as the
financial, economic metropolis of all the Slavic Race the world over is so
great that out of indiscretion, poor policy thrust, and obfuscating vision may
jettison this great role to be taken over by Minsk – Belarus in not too distant
future if Ukraine does not go back to the drawing board and repackage its foreign
policy thrust to put Moscow friendship,
BRICS Friendship, Slavic interests, CIS interest as the greatest course of pursuits
in its entire existence as it burden and destiny and glory to carry shoulder
high from generation to generation exalting yourself and the entire Slavic race
from eternity to eternity and their lies the path of honor, dignity, respect,
financial and economic prosperity for Ukraine to overtake all the countries of
that region if well-properly planned and implemented…this path of honor and greatness
is far higher, loftier, nobler, economically more viable, more prosperous than
any other members of any other union any other axis of countries can ever
offer Ukraine among all , mankind of subsequent realms of subsequent creation…
The solution to Ukraine- Russian crisis: Ukraine should go Back to status quo antebellum, do not
join the EEC Customs union but rather strengthen the CIS.., apologize to the
Russian Federation for all the troubles so far, so good and seek avenues to reconcile
with the Russian federation…on no account must Ukraine go to the battlefield
with the Russian federation..it will be
an abomination that two brothers and owners of the formers greatest Nation of
the Human Race is at war…no it is not to be heard of … either in the spirit realms nor in the
physical plane…it is abominable… So Ukraine should dismantle all its war
machines immediately…and talk to the UN Scribe Ban Ki-Moon to assist to seek a conflict
resolution dialogue with Russia in Geneva.. or even in Moscow…also, talk to China,
Brazil, India, and Argentina…His Excellency Vladimir Putin has a very High
regards to the leaders of the aforementioned countries and would certainly
listen to their appeal… And once you can follow my strategy Crimea would be
yours and everything of the Russian federation would be yours and everything of
yours would be that of the Russian federation. We are drawing this solution
from the highest spiritual plane of unsubstantiated purity of creation.
Third World War &
Prediction of Michael DE Nostradamus: We also want to appeal to all the citizens
of the world to strive to resolve their conflicts through constructive
engagements of dialogue..and the troubled Asia- of North Korea vs South Korea,
the restive Middle East and the turbulent African continent are warned to all remember
the predictions of Michael de Nostradamus of the impending danger of a Third World war that would destroy all the world of the human race and presently all
the unfolding security challenges of the globe are indicating that mankind may unwittingly
inadvertently be drawn into that apocalypse doomsday dread out of lagger
mentality, obtuse avarice for expansion and out of trying to make profits by
selling arms…
Conclusion: We wish
both countries of the Russian Federation and the Ukraine quick peaceful resolution
to the crisis… And we wish the rest of all of mankind- Happy Earth Day as this is
the only planet that is betrothed to mankind lets join hand to make it a better
place for all…
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